U.S. homeownership rate at 15-year low
By Tiffany Hsu and Alejandro Lazo,
Los Angeles Times
May 1, 2012
The 65.4% homeownership rate in the first quarter is down from 66.4% a
year earlier, according to the Census Bureau. But recent data suggest the
housing market’s outlook is promising.
High foreclosure rates and a strong rental market pushed the
homeownership rate in the U.S. to a 15-year low, even as projections for the
housing market grew brighter.
The 65.4% rate in the first quarter is down from the 66% rate in the
fourth quarter and 66.4% in the first quarter of last year, according to the
Census Bureau. Before the housing bubble burst, homeownership reached a high of
69.2% in 2004.
The current rate is low compared with the last decade partly because earlier
homeownership rates were inflated by people who hadn’t made down payments and
were really “renters with an option to buy,” said Richard K. Green,
director of USC’s Lusk Center for Real Estate.
In the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, the homeownership rate stayed roughly in
the mid-60% range, Green said.
“We were getting numbers up toward 70% that just didn’t make any
sense,” he said. “If the number goes below 64%, it’ll be something to
be alarmed about. But above that — we’re just going back to where we should
be.”
Several reports in the last month suggest the outlook for the struggling
housing market is promising.
Pending home sales are at their highest level since April 2010, according
to the National Assn. of Realtors. Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist,
said the market “has clearly turned the corner.”
Price declines are easing. Housing data provider Zillow said last week
that home values are bottoming in most major markets and are set to begin
rising in metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles.
And recent gross domestic product numbers showed improvement, thanks in
part to investment in the residential market, said Patrick Newport, an analyst
at IHS Global Insight.
“Housing is adding to growth now and I think it is going to continue
going forward,” Newport said.
He believes that the homeownership rate will continue tumbling to about
64%. Although mortgage rates and home prices are low at the moment, many
households are still struggling to secure credit.
“We are heading back toward a market that we had 20 years ago, where
to qualify for a home you would have good credit, a good down payment and a
good, steady job,” Newport said.
Many prospective property buyers have been scared off after seeing a
significant number of homeowners struggling with underwater properties, which
won’t sell at a high enough price to pay off the mortgage. In addition,
foreclosures remain common and may continue to increase after a landmark
settlement with loan servicers earlier this year.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s
Economy.com, said there is still a pipeline of about 3.6 million homes in which
the owners are either in foreclosure or seriously delinquent on their payments.
Even though homeownership may continue to fall, the housing market is
improving, he said.
“I think the crash is over,” Zandi said. “House prices are
still soft but in general, despite today’s obviously depressing news, the
housing market is past bottom.”
Homeownership in the first quarter was down in every region, the Census
Bureau said Monday, falling to 59.9% in the West, which in addition to having
the lowest rate in the country also hasn’t had such a small percentage of
homeowners since at least 2006.
Rates among minorities continue to trail the nationwide numbers. Black
homeownership is at 43.1%, while the Hispanic rate is 46.3%. Both groups’ rates
are the lowest they’ve been in years.
Rents, however, are at a post-recession high at a median $721 a month.
Vacancy rates at rental properties fell to 8.8% — their lowest level in a
decade.
Young Americans are now heavily inclined to lease, rather than own, their
homes. The rate of American homeowners ages 35 and younger fell to its lowest
point since 1994 as many opted for leased apartments and shared spaces.
The rental market, with its strong demand and limited supply, is “a
boon for landlords,” according to an investors note from Capital
Economics, whose analysts believe rental rates will continue to rise.
Source:
Los Angeles Times